Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa; Amani Michel Kouassi; Lassina Konate; Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa, Amani Michel Kouassi, Lassina Konate, Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho

Published in American Journal of Environmental Protection (Volume 11, Issue 6)

Received: 7 September 2022 Accepted: 9 December 2022 Published: 10 December 2022

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Abstract

This work aims to simulate both annual rainfall and annual extreme daily rainfall, inside homogeneous climatic zones in Ivory Coast, for two intervals of period in the future: years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The methodological approach is based on the Markov Chain Model. Regarding the annual maximum daily rainfall, it is found that Nash-Stucliffe values range between 94.56% (Attiean Inside zone zone) and 97.36% (Sudanese zone zone), meanwhile the Markovian model at the annual scale was very conclusive with results performances ranging from 97.15% (Baoulean zone zone) to 98.83% (Mountain’s zone zone). These values are all greater than 60% and are very close to 100%, thus reflecting a good match between the observed values and the simulated values. In other words, the observed values and the model are consistent. These very satisfactory results make it possible to certify the performance of the designed model. The predicted rainfall amounts vary between 52.95 mm (Baoulean zone) and 244.10 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 69.41 mm (Baoulean zone) to 160.78 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the heights of simulated extreme rainfall vary between 44.46 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 70.85 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone). The different biases between the past annual maximum daily rainfall (1931-2020) and that of the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) and that of the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have been calculated. These bias values for the period 2031-2060 vary from -16.56% (Attiean Inside zone) to +36.74% (Attiean Littoral zone). Those of the period 2071-2100 fluctuate between -34.13% (Mountain’s zone) and +37.89% (Attiéen du littoral). These biases are significant and reflect an increase in extreme rainfall to come. The years 2031-2060 will then experience an increase in extreme daily rainfall in the areas of Attiean Littoral zone, Sudanese zone from the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Annual rainfall forecast heights range between 1,003 mm (Sudanese zone) and 1,155.84 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1240.51 mm (Sudanese zone) to 1630.21 mm (Mountain’s zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the simulated annual rainfall amounts vary between 1,007 mm (Attiean Inside zone) and 2179.66 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1,214.07 mm (Baoulean zone) to 1,570.35 mm (Attiéen du littoral).

Published in	American Journal of Environmental Protection (Volume 11, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
Page(s)	143-156
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Rainfall Simulation, Climate Change, Markov Chain, Ivory Coast

References

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Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa, Amani Michel Kouassi, Lassina Konate, Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. (2022). Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. American Journal of Environmental Protection, 11(6), 143-156. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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ACS Style

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa; Amani Michel Kouassi; Lassina Konate; Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. Am. J. Environ. Prot. 2022, 11(6), 143-156. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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AMA Style

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa, Amani Michel Kouassi, Lassina Konate, Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. Am J Environ Prot. 2022;11(6):143-156. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11,
  author = {Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa and Amani Michel Kouassi and Lassina Konate and Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho},
  title = {Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental Protection},
  volume = {11},
  number = {6},
  pages = {143-156},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajep.20221106.11},
  abstract = {This work aims to simulate both annual rainfall and annual extreme daily rainfall, inside homogeneous climatic zones in Ivory Coast, for two intervals of period in the future: years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The methodological approach is based on the Markov Chain Model. Regarding the annual maximum daily rainfall, it is found that Nash-Stucliffe values range between 94.56% (Attiean Inside zone zone) and 97.36% (Sudanese zone zone), meanwhile the Markovian model at the annual scale was very conclusive with results performances ranging from 97.15% (Baoulean zone zone) to 98.83% (Mountain’s zone zone). These values are all greater than 60% and are very close to 100%, thus reflecting a good match between the observed values and the simulated values. In other words, the observed values and the model are consistent. These very satisfactory results make it possible to certify the performance of the designed model. The predicted rainfall amounts vary between 52.95 mm (Baoulean zone) and 244.10 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 69.41 mm (Baoulean zone) to 160.78 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the heights of simulated extreme rainfall vary between 44.46 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 70.85 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone). The different biases between the past annual maximum daily rainfall (1931-2020) and that of the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) and that of the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have been calculated. These bias values for the period 2031-2060 vary from -16.56% (Attiean Inside zone) to +36.74% (Attiean Littoral zone). Those of the period 2071-2100 fluctuate between -34.13% (Mountain’s zone) and +37.89% (Attiéen du littoral). These biases are significant and reflect an increase in extreme rainfall to come. The years 2031-2060 will then experience an increase in extreme daily rainfall in the areas of Attiean Littoral zone, Sudanese zone from the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Annual rainfall forecast heights range between 1,003 mm (Sudanese zone) and 1,155.84 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1240.51 mm (Sudanese zone) to 1630.21 mm (Mountain’s zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the simulated annual rainfall amounts vary between 1,007 mm (Attiean Inside zone) and 2179.66 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1,214.07 mm (Baoulean zone) to 1,570.35 mm (Attiéen du littoral).},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast
AU  - Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa
AU  - Amani Michel Kouassi
AU  - Lassina Konate
AU  - Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho
Y1  - 2022/12/10
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
T2  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
JF  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
JO  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
SP  - 143
EP  - 156
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5699
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
AB  - This work aims to simulate both annual rainfall and annual extreme daily rainfall, inside homogeneous climatic zones in Ivory Coast, for two intervals of period in the future: years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The methodological approach is based on the Markov Chain Model. Regarding the annual maximum daily rainfall, it is found that Nash-Stucliffe values range between 94.56% (Attiean Inside zone zone) and 97.36% (Sudanese zone zone), meanwhile the Markovian model at the annual scale was very conclusive with results performances ranging from 97.15% (Baoulean zone zone) to 98.83% (Mountain’s zone zone). These values are all greater than 60% and are very close to 100%, thus reflecting a good match between the observed values and the simulated values. In other words, the observed values and the model are consistent. These very satisfactory results make it possible to certify the performance of the designed model. The predicted rainfall amounts vary between 52.95 mm (Baoulean zone) and 244.10 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 69.41 mm (Baoulean zone) to 160.78 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the heights of simulated extreme rainfall vary between 44.46 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 70.85 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone). The different biases between the past annual maximum daily rainfall (1931-2020) and that of the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) and that of the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have been calculated. These bias values for the period 2031-2060 vary from -16.56% (Attiean Inside zone) to +36.74% (Attiean Littoral zone). Those of the period 2071-2100 fluctuate between -34.13% (Mountain’s zone) and +37.89% (Attiéen du littoral). These biases are significant and reflect an increase in extreme rainfall to come. The years 2031-2060 will then experience an increase in extreme daily rainfall in the areas of Attiean Littoral zone, Sudanese zone from the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Annual rainfall forecast heights range between 1,003 mm (Sudanese zone) and 1,155.84 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1240.51 mm (Sudanese zone) to 1630.21 mm (Mountain’s zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the simulated annual rainfall amounts vary between 1,007 mm (Attiean Inside zone) and 2179.66 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1,214.07 mm (Baoulean zone) to 1,570.35 mm (Attiéen du littoral).
VL  - 11
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa

Department of Earth Sciences and Mineral Resources (STeRMi), Laboratory of Civil Engineering, Geosciences and Geographical Sciences, National Polytechnic Institute Felix Houphouet-Boigny (INP-HB), Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast
Amani Michel Kouassi

Polytechnic Doctoral School (EDP), National Polytechnic Institute Felix Houphouet-Boigny (INP-HB), Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast
Lassina Konate

Training and Research Unit (UFR) Biological Sciences, Peleforo Gon Coulibaly University, Korhogo, Ivory Coast
Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho

Higher School of Mines and Geology (ESMG), National Polytechnic Institute Felix Houphouet-Boigny (INP-HB), Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast

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APA Style

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa, Amani Michel Kouassi, Lassina Konate, Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. (2022). Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. American Journal of Environmental Protection, 11(6), 143-156. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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ACS Style

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa; Amani Michel Kouassi; Lassina Konate; Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. Am. J. Environ. Prot. 2022, 11(6), 143-156. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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AMA Style

Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa, Amani Michel Kouassi, Lassina Konate, Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho. Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast. Am J Environ Prot. 2022;11(6):143-156. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11,
  author = {Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa and Amani Michel Kouassi and Lassina Konate and Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho},
  title = {Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental Protection},
  volume = {11},
  number = {6},
  pages = {143-156},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajep.20221106.11},
  abstract = {This work aims to simulate both annual rainfall and annual extreme daily rainfall, inside homogeneous climatic zones in Ivory Coast, for two intervals of period in the future: years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The methodological approach is based on the Markov Chain Model. Regarding the annual maximum daily rainfall, it is found that Nash-Stucliffe values range between 94.56% (Attiean Inside zone zone) and 97.36% (Sudanese zone zone), meanwhile the Markovian model at the annual scale was very conclusive with results performances ranging from 97.15% (Baoulean zone zone) to 98.83% (Mountain’s zone zone). These values are all greater than 60% and are very close to 100%, thus reflecting a good match between the observed values and the simulated values. In other words, the observed values and the model are consistent. These very satisfactory results make it possible to certify the performance of the designed model. The predicted rainfall amounts vary between 52.95 mm (Baoulean zone) and 244.10 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 69.41 mm (Baoulean zone) to 160.78 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the heights of simulated extreme rainfall vary between 44.46 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 70.85 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone). The different biases between the past annual maximum daily rainfall (1931-2020) and that of the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) and that of the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have been calculated. These bias values for the period 2031-2060 vary from -16.56% (Attiean Inside zone) to +36.74% (Attiean Littoral zone). Those of the period 2071-2100 fluctuate between -34.13% (Mountain’s zone) and +37.89% (Attiéen du littoral). These biases are significant and reflect an increase in extreme rainfall to come. The years 2031-2060 will then experience an increase in extreme daily rainfall in the areas of Attiean Littoral zone, Sudanese zone from the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Annual rainfall forecast heights range between 1,003 mm (Sudanese zone) and 1,155.84 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1240.51 mm (Sudanese zone) to 1630.21 mm (Mountain’s zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the simulated annual rainfall amounts vary between 1,007 mm (Attiean Inside zone) and 2179.66 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1,214.07 mm (Baoulean zone) to 1,570.35 mm (Attiéen du littoral).},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Stochastic Modelling of Annual and Maximum Daily Rainfall Using Markov Chain Model: Case of Ivory Coast
AU  - Relwinde Abdoul-Karim Nassa
AU  - Amani Michel Kouassi
AU  - Lassina Konate
AU  - Kousso Marie Esther Kouaho
Y1  - 2022/12/10
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
T2  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
JF  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
JO  - American Journal of Environmental Protection
SP  - 143
EP  - 156
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5699
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20221106.11
AB  - This work aims to simulate both annual rainfall and annual extreme daily rainfall, inside homogeneous climatic zones in Ivory Coast, for two intervals of period in the future: years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The methodological approach is based on the Markov Chain Model. Regarding the annual maximum daily rainfall, it is found that Nash-Stucliffe values range between 94.56% (Attiean Inside zone zone) and 97.36% (Sudanese zone zone), meanwhile the Markovian model at the annual scale was very conclusive with results performances ranging from 97.15% (Baoulean zone zone) to 98.83% (Mountain’s zone zone). These values are all greater than 60% and are very close to 100%, thus reflecting a good match between the observed values and the simulated values. In other words, the observed values and the model are consistent. These very satisfactory results make it possible to certify the performance of the designed model. The predicted rainfall amounts vary between 52.95 mm (Baoulean zone) and 244.10 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 69.41 mm (Baoulean zone) to 160.78 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the heights of simulated extreme rainfall vary between 44.46 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 70.85 mm (Baoulean zone) and 222.9 mm (Attiean Littoral zone). The different biases between the past annual maximum daily rainfall (1931-2020) and that of the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) and that of the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) have been calculated. These bias values for the period 2031-2060 vary from -16.56% (Attiean Inside zone) to +36.74% (Attiean Littoral zone). Those of the period 2071-2100 fluctuate between -34.13% (Mountain’s zone) and +37.89% (Attiéen du littoral). These biases are significant and reflect an increase in extreme rainfall to come. The years 2031-2060 will then experience an increase in extreme daily rainfall in the areas of Attiean Littoral zone, Sudanese zone from the middle of the 21st century (2031-2060) to the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Annual rainfall forecast heights range between 1,003 mm (Sudanese zone) and 1,155.84 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1240.51 mm (Sudanese zone) to 1630.21 mm (Mountain’s zone) for the period 2031-2060. For the period 2071-2100, the simulated annual rainfall amounts vary between 1,007 mm (Attiean Inside zone) and 2179.66 mm (Attiean Littoral zone) with averages ranging from 1,214.07 mm (Baoulean zone) to 1,570.35 mm (Attiéen du littoral).
VL  - 11
IS  - 6
ER  -

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