1. Introduction
Climate is a major factor for sustainable development, but autonomous climate cycles caused by natural climate variability disturb social, economic, and ecological systems
| [1] | IPCC 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases its next report titled "Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis. |
[1]
. Humans also influence regional, sub-regional, and global climate patterns
| [2] | Jones J R, Schwartz J S, Ellis K N, Hathaway J M and Jawdy C M 2015 Temporal variability of precipitation in the Upper Tennessee Valley J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud. 3 125-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.10.006 |
| [3] | Mahmood H and Furqan M 2021 Oil rents and greenhouse gas emissions: spatial analysis of Gulf Cooperation Council countries Environ. Dev. Sustain. 23 6215-33. https://doi.org//10.1007/s10668-020-00869-w |
| [4] | Taye M, Zewdu F and Ayalew D 2013 Characterizing the climate system of Western Amhara, Ethiopia: a GIS approach Am. J. Res. Commun. 1 319-55. |
[2-4]
. Continued high rates of population growth, industry, transportation, growing reliance on fossil fuel-driven growth technologies, and the effects of land use, such as urbanization, agriculture, livestock, and deforestation, are the main causes of global climate change
| [5] | Chang J, Guo A, Wang Y, Ha Y, Zhang R, Xue L and Tu Z 2019 Reservoir Operations to Mitigate Drought Effects With a Hedging Policy Triggered by the Drought Prevention Limiting Water Level Water Resour. Res. 55 904-22. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022090 |
[5]
. Although climate change is global, potential changes and variability are not expected to be uniform around the world, and there can be dramatic variations from region to region
| [6] | Abera E and Abegaz W 2020 Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trend Detection in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia J Clim. Weather Forecast 8 264. |
| [7] | Asaye T S, Amare Z, Geremew B B and Abebe M G 2025 Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall for deeper understanding of the pattern and its implications over western Amhara, Ethiopia: innovative trend analysis method Discov. Sustain. 6 253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-00900-y |
[6, 7]
.
Two of the most extreme and potentially disastrous effects of climate change and variability in East Africa are changes in temperature and the frequency, intensity, and predictability of precipitation
| [8] | Adhikari U, Nejadhashemi A P and Woznicki S A 2015 Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops Food Energy Secur. 4 110-32. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61 |
| [9] | Asaye T S, Amare Z Y, Geremew B B and Abebe M G 2025 Rainfall variability and trends in western Amhara: implication for sustainable water management and agricultural productivity Water Pract. Technol. wpt2025023. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2025.023 |
[8, 9]
. According to Kisaka and Michael
| [10] | Kisaka M O, Mucheru-Muna M, Ngetich F, Mugwe J, Mugendi D and Mairura F 2015 Rainfall variability, drought characterization, and efficacy of rainfall data reconstruction: case of Eastern Kenya Adv. Meteorol. 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/380404 |
| [11] | Michael C 2006 World Wide Fund for Nature Climate Change Scientist Gland Switz. |
[10, 11]
, changes in regional precipitation will ultimately have an impact on the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources. This could result in decreased agricultural production and productivity, widespread food shortages, and food insecurity
| [12] | Bekele F, Mosisa N and Terefe D 2017 Analysis of current rainfall variability and trends over Bale-Zone, South Eastern highland of Ethiopia Clim. Change 3 889-902. |
[12]
. There are a number of studies that assessed the spatial and temporal fluctuations of rainfall and temperature in different parts of Ethiopian. However, the results of these studies reveal a range of outcomes, some of which have even been contradictory. Additionally, the majority of investigations employed scant data from meteorological stations, particularly in the Amhara region. Thus, using those stations to make generalizations about the entire Amhara region is challenging. This study closes this gap by presenting a more thorough examination of temperature and precipitation with respect to annual and seasonal fluctuations, using one hundred twenty one sample points of CHIRPSv2.0 and ERA5 data. To that end, analyzing and assessing the climatology of rainfall and temperature through scientific investigations is crucial in order to help researchers, policymakers and developers to make more informed decisions, at regional and/or local levels
| [13] | Bekele D, Alamirew T, Kebede A, Zeleke G and Melese A M 2017 Analysis of rainfall trend and variability for agricultural water management in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia J. Water Clim. Change 8 127-41. |
[13]
. Access to information aids in formulating suitable strategies, such as selecting appropriate crops or varieties, determining the optimal planting time, and implementing effective land management techniques, all tailored to the specific location and seasonal climate conditions of the region. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assessment and assessing the spatial variability of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature using dense CHIRPS v2.0 and ERA5 data respectively, over Amhara region for the period 1991-2020.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
The Amhara region is one of Ethiopia's highest regions, encompassing thirteen administrative zones and the area located between 8
045'N and 13
045'N latitude and 35
046' and 40
025'E (
Figure 1). The total area of the study area is estimated at 156, 960 km
2. The climatic conditions in the Amhara region are categorized based on altitude:
Kola (hot zone) below 1500 masl (31% of the region),
Woyina Dega (warm zone) between 1500-2500 masl (44% of the region), and
Dega (cold zone) between 2500-4620 masl (25% of the region)
| [14] | Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B and Bayu W 2012 Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 1475-86. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698 |
[14]
. Based on annual rainfall distribution, eastern Amhara region is characterized by bimodal rainfall patterns, whereas western Amhara region is characterized by unimodal rainfall patterns. Three distinct rainfall seasons occur in this study area: the main rainy season called,
Kiremt (June-September), which accounts for 70% of the rainfall
| [15] | Mengistu D, Bewket W and Lal R 2014 Recent spatiotemporal temperature and rainfall variability and trends over the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia Int. J. Climatol. 34 2278-92. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3837 |
[15]
. The dry period, which cover from October to January, are locally known as
Bega. The second rainy season is cover from February to May, are locally known as
Belg | [16] | Gedefaw, M., Yan, D., Wang, H., Qin, T., Girma, A., Abiyu, A., & Batsuren, D. (2018). Innovative Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. Atmosphere, 9(9), 326. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090326 |
| [17] | NMSA 1996 Climatic and agroclimatic resources of Ethiopia Natl Meteorol Serv Agency Ethiop. Meteorol Res Rep Ser 1 1-137. |
| [18] | Seleshi, Y., & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 24(8), 973-983. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052 |
[16-18]
. According to Seleshi and Zanke
| [18] | Seleshi, Y., & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 24(8), 973-983. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052 |
[18]
and Ayalew
| [14] | Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B and Bayu W 2012 Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 1475-86. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698 |
[14]
, the
Kiremt and
Belg seasons account for 74.3% and 5-30% of the annual rainfall, respectively, in the Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia. In contrast, in the northern and northeastern regions of western Amhara, the
Kiremt season contributes more than 90%
| [9] | Asaye T S, Amare Z Y, Geremew B B and Abebe M G 2025 Rainfall variability and trends in western Amhara: implication for sustainable water management and agricultural productivity Water Pract. Technol. wpt2025023. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2025.023 |
[9]
. The long-term average annual rainfall in the eastern Amhara region, it ranges from 516.9 mm to 1,342 mm
| [6] | Abera E and Abegaz W 2020 Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trend Detection in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia J Clim. Weather Forecast 8 264. |
[6]
, while in the western Amhara region varies from 600 to 2,300 mm
| [9] | Asaye T S, Amare Z Y, Geremew B B and Abebe M G 2025 Rainfall variability and trends in western Amhara: implication for sustainable water management and agricultural productivity Water Pract. Technol. wpt2025023. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2025.023 |
[9]
. Likewise, the annual mean temperature in the region typically ranges between 15°C and 21°C, although it can rise to as high as 27°C in valleys and other marginal areas
| [14] | Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B and Bayu W 2012 Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 1475-86. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698 |
[14]
.
Economic activity
Agriculture continues to be the main economic sector in the region. Generally speaking, it makes up 55.8% of the area GDP on average, and 88.7% of the population makes their living from agriculture and related industries
| [14] | Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B and Bayu W 2012 Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 1475-86. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698 |
[14]
. It is the main supplier of food, raw materials, and revenue from exports for the nearby industries. The area is home to a variety of flora and fauna species due to its unique agro-ecology.
Population
Figure 1. Study area and data points.
The region's population makes up about 25.5% of the nation's overall population, while it only makes up 15.4% of the country's total area
| [4] | Taye M, Zewdu F and Ayalew D 2013 Characterizing the climate system of Western Amhara, Ethiopia: a GIS approach Am. J. Res. Commun. 1 319-55. |
[4]
. Therefore, the population of the region would double in 25 years if the current pace of population growth continues. In terms of the distribution of settlements, the vast majority of people, or around 89% of the total population, live in rural areas and work primarily in agriculture. Compared to the lowlands, the highlands are more densely populated. Looking at the population's age distribution, 80.6 percent of people are under 14, and 6.2 percent of people are 65 years of age or older. As a result, the age dependency ratio reaches 86.8%. This merely demonstrates that there is an additional person to shoulder the socioeconomic burden for each individual.
2.2. Data Types and Sources
2.2.1. Satellite Precipitation Product
Satellite precipitation products are obtained from different institutions and organizations and are freely available. There are different sources of uncertainty in precipitation estimates from satellite-based products. The common sources of errors can generally be associated with data processing, discrete sampling, radiance measurements, retrieval algorithms, and the view of the sensors
| [19] | Huffman G J, Adler R F, Arkin P, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Janowiak J, McNab A, Rudolf B and Schneider U 1997 The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477 |
[19]
.
The CHIRPSv2.0 (ftp://chg ftpout. geog. ucsb. edu/pub/org/chg/products/CHPclim/) is a high-resolution satellite precipitation dataset for nearly 40 years developed by the Climate Hazards Center (CHC). The CHIRPS covers 50° S to 50° N latitudes and all longitudes with a spatial resolution of 0.05°
| [20] | Funk C, Peterson P, Peterson S, Shukla S, Davenport F, Michaelsen J, Knapp K R, Landsfeld M, Husak G, Harrison L, and others 2019 A high-resolution 1983-2016 T max climate data record based on infrared temperatures and stations by the Climate Hazard Center J. Clim. 32 5639-58. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0698.1 |
[20]
. The performance of rainfall products has been evaluated in different areas of the world for different applications. Literatures showed that different researchers used different number of stations, study time period, evaluation approach, and also type of continuous and categorical statistical indices used as well as study area coverage and evaluation timescale. For instance, a study by Ageet
| [21] | Ageet S, Fink A H, Maranan M, Diem J E, Hartter J, Ssali A L and Ayabagabo P 2022 Validation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Equatorial East Africa J. Hydrometeorol. 23. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0145.1 |
[21]
and Aniley
| [22] | Aniley E, Gashaw T, Abraham T, Demessie S F, Bayabil H K, Worqlul A W, van Oel P R, Dile Y T, Chukalla A D, Haileslassie A, and others 2023 Evaluating the performances of gridded satellite/reanalysis products in representing the rainfall climatology of Ethiopia Geocarto Int. 38 2278329. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2278329 |
[22]
evaluate the performance of CHIRPS v2.0 with other datasets over Equatorial East Africa and over Ethiopia, respectively. They conclude CHIRPS has better performance and greatest skill in detecting rainfall events measured in volumetric rainfall. Furthermore, Belay
| [23] | Belay A S, Fenta A A, Yenehun A, Nigate F, Tilahun S A, Moges M M, Dessie M, Adgo E, Nyssen J, Chen M, and others 2019 Evaluation and application of multi-source satellite rainfall product CHIRPS to assess spatio-temporal rainfall variability on data-sparse western margins of Ethiopian highlands Remote Sens. 11 2688. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11222688 |
[23]
evaluated the multi-source satellite rainfall product of CHIRPSv2.0 to assess the spatiotemporal rainfall variability in data scarce regions of Beles River Basin. The analyzed result showed a slight overestimation of daily, monthly and annual rainfall for the low land region and underestimation for the high land region. The author concludes that the performance of CHIRPSv2.0 rainfall varies spatially within a small basin level.
The CHIRPSv2.0 dataset can be downloaded daily data in NetCDF format and extracted based on station latitude and longitude by using the R statistical package for the time period 1991-2020. After extracting the CHIRPSv2.0 data, the One hundred twenty one grid points were purposely selected based on the fair distribution of the grid points in the study area (
Figure 1).
2.2.2. Reanalysis Data
Additionally, for this study, the temperature time series data used for the daily maximum and minimum temperature came from reanalysis products from 1991 to 2020. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has released the global atmospheric reanalysis dataset ERA5. This dataset makes data from weather balloons, satellites, and ground stations. With long-term (1950-present) global coverage of meteorological data, ERA5 offers a horizontal resolution of 0.25° latitude-longitude. Recent climate studies in Africa
| [24] | Hamed M M, Nashwan M S and Shahid S 2021 Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis Int J Clim. 41 5431-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7286 |
| [25] | Ssenyunzi R C, Oruru B, D’ujanga F M, Realini E, Barindelli S, Tagliaferro G, von Engeln A and van de Giesen N 2020 Performance of ERA5 data in retrieving Precipitable Water Vapour over East African tropical region Adv. Space Res. 65 1877-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.02.003 |
[24, 25]
, Asia
| [26] | Hamed M M, Nashwan M S, Shahid S, Wang X-J, Ismail T B, Dewan A and Asaduzzaman M 2023 Future Köppen-Geiger climate zones over Southeast Asia using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble Atmospheric Res. 283 106560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106560 |
| [27] | Jiang J, Zhou T and Zhang W 2019 Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis precipitable water vapor data sets against radiosonde observations in central Asia Earth Space Sci. 6 1129-48. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000654 |
| [28] | Ullah W, Wang G, Lou D, Ullah S, Bhatti A S, Ullah S, Karim A, Hagan D F T and Ali G 2021 Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme monsoon precipitation in Pakistan during 1981-2018 Atmospheric Res. 253 105489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105489 |
[26-28]
, and on the global scale
| [29] | Ajjur S B and Al-Ghamdi S G 2021 Global hotspots for future absolute temperature extremes from CMIP6 models Earth Space Sci. 8 e2021EA001817. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001817 |
| [30] | Xu Z, Han Y, Tam C-Y, Yang Z-L and Fu C 2021 Bias-corrected CMIP6 global dataset for dynamical downscaling of the historical and future climate (1979-2100) Sci. Data 8 293. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01079-3 |
[29, 30]
have found that ERA5 performs the best. ERA5 has several key improvements over previous global reanalysis products; better temporal and spatial resolutions are one of its primary advantages. Every data point is connected to precise latitude and longitude coordinates, arranging the data on a standard grid. The ERA5 temperature data is commonly recorded in degrees Celsius and is available at various pressure and surface levels. The ERA5 daily maximum and minimum temperature data at a height of 2 meters was obtained from the Copernicus Climate Change Service website: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-reanalysis and downloaded in the NetCDF format and converted to CSV format using the Climate Data Tool (CDT) package in R software. To assess the spatial variability of temperature, One hundred twenty one grid points were purposively selected, ensuring a fair distribution of grid points across the study area.
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Climatology of Rainfall
3.1.1. Rainfall Climatology During Bega Season
The mean
Bega season
rainfall in the Amhara region is distributed geographically between 25 mm and 250 mm. The Figure shows that western, central and eastern parts of the Amhara region are received the maximum amounts of rainfall (100 mm-250 mm. However, the northern and northeastern parts of the study area received low amounts of rainfall (25mm-100 mm) (
Figure 2). The results are little bit contradict with those of Alemu and Bawok
| [31] | Alemu M M and Bawoke G T 2020 Analysis of spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region, Ethiopia J. Water Clim. Change 11 1505-20. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.084 |
[31]
who discovered that most of Amhara region had less than 150 mm during
Bega season. This may be due season classification.
Figure 2. Rainfall climatology for Bega season.
Bega season predominantly falls under the influence of hot, dry days and cool nights
| [18] | Seleshi, Y., & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 24(8), 973-983. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052 |
| [32] | Degefu W 1987 Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia Drought Hunger Afr. Denying Famine Future 23 36. |
[18, 32]
. Those dry air masses originate from the Saharan anticyclone and Siberia high-pressure systems. Most of the highland regions have occasional frost in addition to early morning frost. Occasionally, however, low-pressure systems that originate in the Mediterranean migrate southward and combine with tropical systems, disrupting northeasterly winds and causing unseasonal rainfall in northwest Ethiopia.
3.1.2. Rainfall Climatology During Belg Season
The long-term mean
Belg season
rainfall in the Amhara region is distributed geographically between 50 mm and 300 mm. The Figure shows that western, central and eastern parts of the Amhara region are received the maximum amounts of rainfall (150 mm-300 mm. However, the northern and northeaster parts of the study area received low amounts of rainfall (50-150 mm) (
Figure 3). The results align with those of Fazzini
who discovered that most of the Amhara region had less than 100 mm - 200 mm during
Belg season. However, Fazzini
report that the northern part of the Amhara region receives less than 100 mm. But, in this study including northern, most of the Amhara region had received more than 100 mm during
Belg season.
Figure 3. Rainfall climatology for Belg Season.
Belg is the small rainy period for most parts of Ethiopia except for south and southeastern low-land areas
| [17] | NMSA 1996 Climatic and agroclimatic resources of Ethiopia Natl Meteorol Serv Agency Ethiop. Meteorol Res Rep Ser 1 1-137. |
| [32] | Degefu W 1987 Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia Drought Hunger Afr. Denying Famine Future 23 36. |
[17, 32]
. This season has a great deal of regional and temporal variability in rainfall as well as a high frequency of maximum temperatures in certain places
| [34] | Abebe M 2006 The onset, cessation and dry spells of the small rainy season (Belg) of Ethiopia Natl. Meteorol. Agency Addis Ababa Ethiopia. |
| [35] | Haile T and Yarotskaya L 1987 Onset and cessation of rains in Ethiopia NMSA Memo Addis Ababa Ethiopia. |
[34, 35]
. March, April, and May are the warmest months during the
Belg season. Global governing systems affecting
Belg season: mid-latitude frontal systems from the Mediterranean Sea, moisture inflow from the northern Indian Ocean and the adjacent Arabian Sea, seasonal oscillation of the ITCZ, ENSO phenomena, IOD phenomena, and the formation and propagation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean. From February to May, the Arabian High moves toward the northern Arabian Sea and pushes over the water body, causing a moist, southeasterly air current to flow toward Ethiopia
| [17] | NMSA 1996 Climatic and agroclimatic resources of Ethiopia Natl Meteorol Serv Agency Ethiop. Meteorol Res Rep Ser 1 1-137. |
[17]
. Occasionally, there are also frontal lows that either originate from the Mediterranean area or originate within the Atlantic Ocean and are swept through from west to east; this produces excess rainfall over the east, central, and south parts of Ethiopia
| [34] | Abebe M 2006 The onset, cessation and dry spells of the small rainy season (Belg) of Ethiopia Natl. Meteorol. Agency Addis Ababa Ethiopia. |
[34]
. Therefore, moist, easterly, and southeasterly winds produce
Belg rainfall, which is the short rainy season for many parts of the country but the main rainy season for the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia
| [32] | Degefu W 1987 Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia Drought Hunger Afr. Denying Famine Future 23 36. |
[32]
.
3.1.3. Rainfall Climatology During Kiremt Season and Annually
During the
Kiremt season, most parts of central, northern, and western showed high rainfall amounts (800 mm-1000 mm), whereas the smallest rainfall distribution was recorded in some parts of northern and northeastern areas of Amhara (400 mm-800 mm) (
Figure 4). This result also in line those of
| [14] | Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B and Bayu W 2012 Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 1475-86. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698 |
[14]
who reported that spatial distribution of annual rainfall was varied from 850 to 1485 mm over Amhara region. However, in this study south western area of Amhara region received up to 1600 mm. The formation of a subtropical high-pressure system over St. Helena, Mascarene, and the Azores affects Ethiopia's moisture flux and rainfall due to the systems' strength and position
| [36] | Kassahun B 1987 Large Scale Features Associated with Kiremt Rainfall Anomaly. African Climate and Climate Change: Physical Social and Political perspectives. |
[36]
.
Figure 4. Rainfall climatology during Kiremt season and annually.
Similarly, the regional distribution of annual rainfall from 1991 to 2020 is shown in
Figure 4. Long-term mean annual rainfall in the Amhara region is distributed geographically between 800 mm and 1600 mm. The Figure shows that western and northeastern parts of the Amhara region are received the most and least rainfall, respectively. Wagihmera, north Wollo, and Oromiya special zones are the areas receiving a small amount of annual rainfall, while Awi and west Gojjam zone is the area receiving a high amount of rainfall. Most parts of Amhara region have received 1000 mm-1300 mm of annual rainfall (
Figure 4). This results are also in line those of Alemu and Mesfin
| [31] | Alemu M M and Bawoke G T 2020 Analysis of spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region, Ethiopia J. Water Clim. Change 11 1505-20. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.084 |
| [37] | Mesfin S, Adem A A, Mullu A and Melesse A M 2021 Historical trend analysis of rainfall in Amhara national regional state Nile Gd. Ethiop. Renaiss. Dam Past Present Future 475-91. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76437-1_25 |
[31, 37]
who reported that spatial distribution of annual rainfall was varied from 1000 to 1300 mm over most of Amhara region. However, in this study south western area of Amhara region especially Awi zone received up to 1600 mm.
3.2. Climatology of Maximum Temperature
3.2.1. Climatology of Maximum Temperature During Bega Season
Some highland areas of Amhara region like Deber Tabor, Dingayber, Gidan, Wadela, Teneta, Woreielu, Jama and Ensaro have been recorded 19-23°C during
Bega season (
Figure 5). Most parts of Amhara region have been recorded 23-27°C maximum temperature during
Bega season. Some parts of central Gondar and north Gondar have been recorded 27-30°C. Whereas, western parts of west Gondar has been recorded more than 30°C maximum temperature.
Figure 5. Climatology of maximum temperature over Amhara region during Bega season.
3.2.2. Climatology of Maximum Temperature During Belg Season
Similarly, during
Belg season maximum temperatures in most parts of Amhara region have been reported to range from 25 to 30°C, with the exception of a few pocket regions. During the
Belg season, the maximum temperature ranged from 27°C to 38°C in the northwestern Amhara region, as well as in certain areas of Awi zone (
Figure 6). These results, in line with those of Gashaw
| [38] | Gashaw T, Wubaye G B, Worqlul A W, Dile Y T, Mohammed J A, Birhan D A, Tefera G W, van Oel P R, Haileslassie A, Chukalla A D, and others 2023 Local and regional climate trends and variabilities in Ethiopia: Implications for climate change adaptations Environ. Chall. 13 100794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100794 |
[38]
, conclude that maximum temperature ranged from 19.3°C to 21.1°C in the cool and moist AEZ during the
Bega and
Belg seasons, respectively. Similarly, in the warm semi-arid agroecology zone, the highest maximum temperature was observed in the
Belg season (31.7°C).
Figure 6. Climatology of maximum temperature over Amhara region during Belg season.
3.2.3. Climatology of Maximum Temperature During Kiremt Season and Annual Time Scale
Similarly, during
Kiremt season maximum temperatures in most parts of Amhara region have been reported to range from 21 to 27°C, with the exception of a few pocket regions. While the during the
Kiremt season, maximum temperature have been ranged from 27°C to 32°C in the western portion of west Gondar, as well as in certain areas of Awi zone (
Figure 7). Overall, the maximum temperature during
Kiremt season is gradually decreased from July up to September. Similarly, the maximum temperature for most of Amhara region is measured between 23°C and 27°C annually. There have also been reports of annual maximum temperatures of less than 23°C in a few areas, particularly in the eastern part of Amhara region. In addition, temperatures between 27°C and 30°C have been recorded in a few places in the eastern, northern, northwestern portion of the Amhara region (
Figure 7). Therefore, the maximum temperature reaches its highest level during
Belg season (Feb- May) but, decrease again to lowest temperature level in
Kiremt season (June-September). The findings, aligning with those from Gashaw
| [38] | Gashaw T, Wubaye G B, Worqlul A W, Dile Y T, Mohammed J A, Birhan D A, Tefera G W, van Oel P R, Haileslassie A, Chukalla A D, and others 2023 Local and regional climate trends and variabilities in Ethiopia: Implications for climate change adaptations Environ. Chall. 13 100794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100794 |
[38]
indicate that regions of lower elevation (hot arid and warm semi-arid agroecology zones) had the highest maximum temperatures. Conversely, higher elevation areas, like cool and moist AEZ, experienced lower temperatures. This elevation-related temperature variation is further explored by Osima
| [39] | Osima S, Indasi V S, Zaroug M, Endris H S, Gudoshava M, Misiani H O, Nimusiima A, Anyah R O, Otieno G, Ogwang B A, and others 2018 Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 C and 2 C global warming Environ. Res. Lett. 13 065004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba1b |
[39]
who determined that elevation plays a significant role in temperature distribution in Ethiopia.
Figure 7. Climatology of maximum temperature during Kiremt season and annually.
3.3. Climatology of Minimum Temperature
3.3.1. Climatology of Minimum Temperature During Bega and Belg Season
Most parts of Amhara region have recorded between 9°C and 15°C minimum temperature during the
Bega season. However, on some specific areas (highland areas) have less than 9°C. While on the northwestern part of Amhara region have been recorded more than 15°C during
Bega season. Hence, the minimum temperature during
Bega season is gradually decreased (colder) from November up to January. The rise in temperature within the highland areas, where crop cultivation is presently carried out, could render certain regions unsuitable for agriculture. Additionally, the temperature increase in many high-altitude areas may foster conditions that facilitate the spread of malaria, making malaria intervention necessary
| [40] | Leal Filho W, May J, May M and Nagy G J 2023 Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 Malar. J. 22 248. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4 |
[40]
.
Figure 8. Climatology of minimum temperature over Amhara region during Bega and Belg season.
Most parts of Amhara region have recorded between 12°C and 18°C minimum temperature during the
Belg season. However, on some specific areas (highland areas) have less than 12°C. While on the northwestern part of Amhara region have been recorded more than 20°C during
Belg season. Hence, the minimum temperature during
Belg season is gradually increased (warmer) from February up to May. Rising temperatures can greatly influence various aspects, including mental health and physical health, as well as create thermal instability in different systems such as dwarf nova disks
| [41] | Rony M K K and Alamgir H M 2023 High temperatures on mental health: Recognizing the association and the need for proactive strategies—A perspective Health Sci. Rep. 6 e1729. https://doi.org/10.1002/hsr2.1729 |
[41]
.
3.3.2. Climatology of Minimum Temperature During Kiremt Season and Annual
Most parts of Amhara region have recorded between 12°C and 18°C minimum temperature during the Kiremt season. However, on some specific areas (highland areas) have less than 12°C. While on the northwestern part of Amhara region have been recorded more than 20°C during Kiremt season.
The minimum temperature for most of Amhara region is measured between 12°C and 18°C annually. There have also been reports of annual minimum temperatures of less than 12°C in a few areas, particularly in the central part of Amhara region. In addition, temperatures between 18°C and 25°C have been recorded in a few places in the northern, northwestern portion of the Amhara region (
Figure 9). Therefore, the minimum temperature reaches its lowest level during
Bega season (October- January) but, increase again to highest temperature level in
Belg season (Feburary-May).
In comparison to the
Kiremt and
Belg seasons, the
Bega season experiences the lowest minimum temperatures, ranging from 9 to 15°C, as illustrated in
Figure 8. This phenomenon may be attributed to the strengthening of dry and cold high-pressure systems over the northern and central highlands of Ethiopia during the
Bega season
| [42] | Gebre Hadgu G H, Kindie Tesfaye K T, Girma Mamo G M and Belay Kassa B K 2013 Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. |
| [43] | Tolosa A A, Dadi D K, Mirkena L W, Erena Z B and Liban F M 2023 Impacts of climate variability and change on sorghum crop yield in the babile district of eastern Ethiopia Climate 11 99. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050099 |
[42, 43]
. This result can be beneficial for farmers and practitioners to adjust their annual and seasonal weather-related strategies, such as irrigation planning and crop selection, in response to shifting temperature trends.
Figure 9. Climatology of minimum temperature during Kiremt season and annually.